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APRIL 16,  2011

IT'S THE MIDEAST, AFTER ALL – AT 11:23 P.M. ET:  It's now well understood that these "democratic revolutions" in the Mideast may not turn out well.  There's no democratic tradition, and some of the "countries" are actually legal fictions created by colonial powers.  Al Qaeda is taking note, and American counter-intelligence officials are worried.  From ABC News:

On the same day reports emerged of a new al Qaeda video that praised the revolutions sweeping the Arab world, one the U.S.'s top counter-terror officials warned the terror organization "thrives" in the political unrest that follows.

"The governments of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen have drastically changed in the last six months," FBI Assistant Director of Counter-Terrorism Mark Giuliano said Thursday. "They are now led by transitional or interim governments, military regimes, or democratic alliances with no established track record on counterterrorism efforts. Al Qaeda thrives in such conditions and countries of weak governance and political instability -- countries in which governments may be sympathetic to their campaign of violence."

Giuliano made the comments at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy just hours before the first reports emerged of the new al Qaeda video, which features separate appearances by al Qaeda's number two commander, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and American-born key commander in al Qaeda in the Arabian Penninsula (AQAP), Anwar al-Awlaki, each praising the recent uprisings. In the hour-plus long video, al-Zawahiri orders Muslims in Egypt to create an Islamic state there and calls for the Arab armies of the Middle East to intervene in Libya to oust dictator Moammar Gadhafi before "Western aid... turns into invasions."

If Guiliano is wary of Islamic militant influence in the uprisings, especially in Libya, he's is not alone. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed her fears the revolt in Libya would be exploited by terror groups at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee meeting in early March.

COMMENT:  We should take this very seriously.  There are no Tommy Jeffersons or Benny Franklins over there to keep things in order.  So far the situation in Egypt is far from ideal, with the Muslim Brotherhood gaining more and more influence.  Some of the Libyan rebel leaders have pasts that John Dillinger might admire. 

It would be a tragedy if the legitimate hopes of Arabs for modern, democratic societies were dashed.  It wouldn't be the first time either.  The Iranians overthrew the Shah in 1979, and look what they got.

April 16, 2011       Permalink 

OH DEAR, OH DEAR, WHAT CAN THE MATTER BE? – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  National Public Radio has very graciously given us one more example of why it does not deserve to be financed by the American people.  This new "report" laments the decline of the anti-war movement.  Where have all those good, decent "anti-war activists" gone?  The story is written entirely from the political left, making heavy use of quotes from, are you ready, "peace studies" professors.  Consider this gem, our painful quote of the day:

And what about the younger generations? With the American anti-war movement of the 1960s came a widespread interest among students in peace, justice and conflict resolution. Today, dozens of colleges and universities offer courses — and some offer majors — in peace studies. There are professional organizations such as the Peace and Justice Studies Association and the International Peace Research Association.

Oh please.  You can just imagine what "peace and justice" studies consist of.  That term is an old chestnut of the Marxist left, on a par with "the People's Republic of..."

With America mired in a myriad of military pursuits, what do professors of peace studies say in the classroom? "The 'why' does get a bit complicated at times," says Juniata's Celia Cook-Huffman, but the students "seem willing to struggle with that."

She adds, "We also try to talk about war broadly, so the war on the poor and the war on the environment get mixed in there as well."

I'm sure.  Very mixed in, as in, "You foolish kids, don't you know what we're doing to your minds?" 

And how do students respond? In various ways. "Some are ready to take action and do," she says. And "some feel overwhelmed and aren't sure what to do."

COMMENT:  There are a number of reasons for the decline of the "anti-war" movement – the lack of a draft; the fact that we were attacked directly, Pearl Harbor-style, on 9-11; the relatively low level of the conflicts we're engaged in, and the assumption, wrong it turned out, that Barack Obama was some kind of bringer of peace.

But there's another reason:  Many Americans, I think are onto the "anti-war" activists who only oppose any war that America has a chance of winning.  As Christopher Hitchens has written, the "anti-war" movement really isn't anti-war at all.

Further, from what I've seen, young people today don't appear quite as naive or vulnerable as their predecessors of the 1960s.  In fact, I've been heartened by the support given by students to the return of ROTC on many "elite" campuses.  That support may not extend to some elements of the faculty, still stuck in the 60s.

The "anti-war" movement of the late 60s was never constructive.  It was manipulated by the far left, a fact made clear in North Vietnam's own history of the war.  It contributed mightily to our defeat in Vietnam, a defeat that occcurred despite the fact that we never lost a single military battle.  The collapse came long after American troops had left 'Nam, when our Congress, in an act of supreme dishonor, cut off funding to our South Vietnamese allies in 1975. 

I don't miss the "movement."  If you honestly oppose an American military action, there are far more constructive ways to register your feelings than a mass demonstration, run by old red groups, and followed inevitably by pizza parties and hookups at night.

April 16, 2011       Permalink

BRUTALITY IN LIBYA – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  Libya has fallen off the front page of American newspapers, and is less and less a story in the broadcast media.  It is a weird situation, as the president of the United States was one of the Western leaders who initiated the NATO military campaign against the Libyan government.  That campaign has stalled, and people here are losing interest.  But the desperation in Libya is growing.  From London's Telegraph, which continues to do a good job of covering the conflict:

Reports from the city on Friday said the Libyans had used mortar fired shells to disperse multiple bombs in residential areas.

The Geneva Convention 1949 protocol obliges armies to take all care to ensure civilians are not harmed in attacks on the enemy.

Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, condemned Col Gaddafis brutality toward civilians.

She said: "That is worrying information. And it is one of the reasons the fight in Misurata is so difficult, because it's at close quarters, it's in amongst urban areas and it poses a lot of challenges to both Nato and to the opposition."

Witnesses saw the cluster bombs explode in the overnight offensive. On Friday fragments of the Spanish made MAT-120 cargo mortar, which holds 21 smaller sub-munitions, were found. When scattered over a wide area, the bombs kill indiscriminately. Markings on the fragments show the mortars were made in Spain in 2007, which banned the weapon in 2008.

COMMENT:  Notice, please, the silence of the international left.  Where are the huge demonstrations in Europe that we see whenever the United States is engaged in a military action?  Where are the well-known "human rights activists" of Code Pink and other fellow travelers?  (In fairness, Human Rights Watch, which has declined badly over the years, has been pretty good on Libya.) 

Throughout the Arab world its citizens have been in revolt, and often brutally suppressed.  But we await those big demonstrations.  Oh, we also await the teach-ins and rallies on American college campuses.

April 16, 2011       Permalink 

TOURIST NEWS – AT 10:30 A.M. ET:  We thought you'd want to know this so you can make last-minute reservations.  From ABC News:

Cuba kicks off a crucial Communist Party congress Saturday with a massive military and civilian parade to mark 50 years since the defeat of CIA-backed exiles at the Bay of Pigs, still celebrated here as a landmark triumph over the island's powerful neighbor to the north.

Officials have draped huge Cuban flags from government and other buildings; tanks practicing for the big event have been rumbling down city streets and military planes have roared through the skies. Cannon fire from Havana's seaside ramparts has echoed periodically across the city.

Hundreds of thousands of people — from aging generals to factory workers — are expected to march through the capital. Such shows of nationalism are one of the things Cuba does best, with participants given the day off and a fleet of Soviet-era buses mobilized to ferry them in from across the island.

The festivities on Saturday culminate at Revolution Plaza, a vast concrete expanse where an iconic sculpture of Ernesto "Che" Guevara gazes down from the side of the Interior Ministry building.

COMMENT:  For anyone who thought the Castro regime was softening, or was susceptible to Obama's "outreach," think again.  This is still a hard-line Communist state, a reactionary throwback to Stalinism, and no friend of ours.  It is, of course, a curse on the Cuban people, some of whom have come here and become one of our most spirited and hardest-working communities. 

I'm sure the festivities in Cuba will be colorful.  If you go, don't criticize too loudly.

April 16, 2011     Permalink

APRIL 15,  2011

THE INDISPENSABLE NATION – AT 9:57 P.M. ET:  When people refer to the United States as the indispensable nation, pseudo-sophisticates laugh.  They might consider ending the laughter.  From the Washington Post:

Less than a month into the Libyan conflict, NATO is running short of precision bombs, highlighting the limitations of Britain, France and other European countries in sustaining even a relatively small military action over an extended period of time, according to senior NATO and U.S. officials.

The shortage of European munitions, along with the limited number of aircraft available, has raised doubts among some officials about whether the United States can continue to avoid returning to the air campaign if Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi hangs onto power for several more months.

U.S. strike aircraft that participated in the early stage of the operation, before the United States relinquished command to NATO and assumed what President Obama called a “supporting” role, have remained in the theater “on 12-hour standby” with crews “constantly briefed on the current situation,” a NATO official said.

So far, the NATO commander has not requested their deployment. Several U.S. military officials said they anticipated being called back into the fight, although a senior administration official said he expected other countries to announce “in the next few days” that they would contribute aircraft equipped with the laser-guided munitions.

COMMENT:  NATO has always been primarily the United States, although we certainly acknowledge the contributions of other nations, especially Britain and Canada.  But NATO, as an alliance, may not survive in its current form very much longer.  Severe budget cuts in European defense ministries, the lack of a commonly recognized enemy, and a new generation of Europeans indifferent to defense, may combine to make NATO a paper tiger. 

The Libyan operation is only weeks old, and already the alliance is running short of equipment.  One could only imagine this alliance fighting a real army. 

America is the indispensable nation.  Somebody tell the president.

April 15, 2011       Permalink

VICTORY IN WISCONSIN – AT 9:32 P.M. ET:  Very few elections for state judges go national, but this one did.  In Wisconsin, an election for the State Supreme court became critical because a win by a liberal challenger could have tilted the court in such a way as to cancel the reforms recently enacted under Republican Governor Scott Walker.  But the challenger has apparently lost.  From Fox:

A conservative justice has weathered attempts to link him to Wisconsin's governor and a divisive union rights law and won re-election, according to county vote totals finalized Friday.

Tallies from each of the state's 72 counties show Justice David Prosser defeated challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg by 7,316 votes. State election officials said they will wait to declare an official winner until the deadline for Kloppenburg to seek a recount passes. She has until Wednesday to call for one.

A message left with Kloppenburg's campaign wasn't immediately returned.

Kloppenburg faced an uphill fight against Prosser, a 12-year court veteran and former Republican Assembly speaker. But she got a boost in the weeks leading up to the election as her supporters worked to turn anger against Gov. Scott Walker and the union rights law against Prosser.

The law, which Walker wrote, strips most public sector workers of nearly all their collective bargaining rights. It also requires them to contribute more to their health care and pensions, changes that will result in an average 8 percent pay cut.

Walker, a Republican, has said the law is needed to help balance the state budget and give local governments the flexibility they need to absorb deep cuts in state aid. Democrats see it as an assault on unions, which are among the party's strongest campaign allies.

COMMENT:  It's doubtful that a recount could overturn such a large lead.  Walker's reforms seem secure for now.

April 15, 2011       Permalink

SYRIA – AT 10:34 A.M. ET:  We watch events in Syria carefully because it's one of the most important Arab countries, and Iran's closest ally in the Arab world.  Also, Syria essentially controls Lebanon through Hezbollah, another Iranian ally.  Despite the Syrian government's brutal crackdowns on protesters, the protests continue and grow.  Friday, after prayers, is the big protest time in the Arab world, and this is Friday...even in Syria:

(CNN) -- Thousands of demonstrators in Syrian cities hit the streets after Friday prayers in another week of anti-government rallies as a prominent humanitarian watchdog group issued a report detailing "torture and ill-treatment" of protesters over the last month.

Three eyewitnesses reported demonstrations in Daraa, Baniyas, Dair Elzour, Douma, Zabadani and the outskirts of Damascus against the Bashar al-Assad regime, urged by protesters to enact political, economic, and social changes.

One witness in Daraa told CNN that people packed into the restive city's main square and chanted, "The people demand the reform of the regime" and "United, United! The Syrian people are united." The witness, who is a doctor, said the demonstration was peaceful and there were no signs of police or soldiers.

Human Rights Watch on Friday issued a report entitled "Syria: Rampant Torture of Protesters," a document detailing arbitrary detention, as well as mistreatment in prison.

Ordinarily, we wouldn't take anything said by Human Rights Watch too seriously.  The group has become something of a joke.  But this time, faced with overwhelming evidence, they may actually be getting it right.

Meanwhile, the United States issues pro forma denunciations of the Syrian crackdown, but there are no teeth in our statements.  Apparently, according to reports, White House advisers are divided over how far to take our protests.

Strange.  We cracked down hard on ally Mubarak, pressuring him out of office, and each day we get reports of worsening conditions for the Egyptian "revolution."  But we issue only wrist slaps to enemy Assad. 

I can't deny that making policy in these situations is difficult.  As with Libya, we really don't know much about the Syrian opposition.  Once again America's lack of human intelligence is dragging us down.  In Egypt it is now likely that any new government will have an anti-American flavor, and there is no guarantee that Egyptian "democracy" will last very long. 

The American media seems to be losing interest in these Mideast eruptions, which have been going on since they started in Tunisia in January.  But what is happening today will profoundly affect our future relations in the region, and, ultimately, our own security.

April 15, 2011      Permalink

THE PEOPLE WHO PAY THOSE TAXES AREN'T DOING SO WELL – AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  New economic reports are nothing for the White House to brag about.  Finally, those inflated gasoline prices are having their effect:

Real earnings fell for a fifth straight month as wages fail to keep up with soaring gasoline prices and other costs. Inflation-adjusted earnings for all private workers dropped 0.5% in March, the worst monthly drop since July 2008, according to Labor Department data. Nominal wages were flat while consumer prices climbed more than 0.5% for a second straight month.

Year over year, inflation-adjusted weekly pay sank 0.4%. That’s the first drop in a year and down from a 2.2% gain in October.

Since October, real weekly wages have dropped at a 3.8% annual rate — matching the decline set in July 2008, when oil prices peaked above $147 a barrel.

(Meanwhile, real hourly wages fell 0.6% vs. Feb. and 1% vs. a year earlier.)

The 2 percentage point temporary cut in payroll taxes has offset much of the recent decline in wages. But prices at the pump are taking their toll on consumers’ pocketbooks and psyche. Retail sales ex gasoline rose just 0.1% last month. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index dived to a 33-month low in April, losing more than 20% in the last three months.

Overall consumer inflation was 2.7% in March, the highest since the end of 2009. Core inflation was 1.2%, the highest since the start of 2010 but still moderate. However, overall and core inflation should continue to trend higher for the next few months, if only because of easy year-earlier comparisons.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is betting that commodity prices will have only a temporary impact on U.S. inflation. We'll see.

It's not just inflation. Nominal weekly wages were flat in March. The yearly gain slowed from 3.4% in October to 2.3% in March.

COMMENT:  All right, what is the Republican program for dealing with this?  Obama has an abysmal economic record to run on.  He refuses to do a thing about high gasoline prices because that would upset the extreme environmentalists who are part of his base.  (He recently said in Brazil that we'd be happy to buy oil drilled there.  Oh great.) 

The old adage always applies, though.  You can't beat somebody with nobody.  People like Donald Trump are getting far too much publicity because there's a leadership vacuum at the Republican presidential level.  That vacuum will have to be filled in the coming months for Republicans to have enough time to make their case and come up with the best candidate for president.  My fear continues that the GOP will just nominate the next guy in line and leave it at that, allowing Obama to slip through to a second term. 

It's already April.  Primaries start in about eight or nine months.  Time to get going.

April 15, 2011       Permalink 

THAT DAY AGAIN – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  Oh, it's income tax day.  Please make sure you get the postmark on time. 

Now, we are a low-tax website, but we are not a no-tax or gimmicky-tax website.  Taxes must be paid, and the founders made provision for that in the Constitution.  If you want the services, you've got to pay the bill.  But no service should be immune to public examination.  Where are the funds going?  How much value are we getting?  It's pretty clear, especially at the state level, that there are many savings to be had.  And...we can't have everything we want from government.  This country got along quite well without many of the "services" available today.

I see no reason why the government should fund NPR.  I see no reason why the government, except for limited programs, should fund the arts, even though I love the arts.  We speak of our golden age of film, our golden age of television, our golden age of American music.  Isn't it interesting – all those "golden" ages took place before the federal government started heavy subsidies for the arts.  (There were some during the Depression.)  It was artists and visionaries who created golden ages, not government grants. 

We must also take care that our taxes aren't going simply to prop up higher prices for our citizens, especially in education.  Be wary of "tuition grants," which are usually followed by the raising of tuition, essentially negating the grant.  It's an old racket.  Be wary of "arts grants" to organizations or sectors that pay vastly inflated salaries. 

So, pay your taxes.  But, throughout the year, be vigilant.  Be vigilant about how money is spent.  Also be vigilant about tax gimmicks, including those from conservatives, that can't provide the necessary revenue for the things we do want and, as a nation, do need. 

Margaret Thatcher once said that socialism doesn't work because, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money.  She was right.  Eternal vigilance, my friend.

April 15, 2011      Permalink

OBAMA ON THE STUMP – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  A lot of kids are taught by their parents always to have something to fall back on, some skill, some advantage.  If you're Barack Obama, you fall back on campaign speeches.  The president is best when campaigning, worst when president, so he's back on the stump:

CHICAGO (AFP) – US President Barack Obama accused Republicans of wanting to turn the United States into a "Third World" country as he rallied support for his reelection campaign.

The attack came a day after Obama savaged Republican budget plans and unveiled his $4-trillion deficit reduction drive that aims to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans in order to preserve key social services.
The debate over fiscal policy will prove critical to the 2012 campaign and Obama sought to frame it as a "stark choice" between investing in the future or watching the country fall apart.

"Under their vision, we can't invest in roads and bridges and broadband and high-speed rail," Obama told a select group of the Democratic faithful at the second of three fundraising events in his hometown of Chicago.

COMMENT:  Absolutely cynical.  Should we invest in the future?  Of course.  Is our infrastructure falling apart?  Yes.  You should drive some of the roads in New York State.  Broadband?  Of course.

But to invest you have to have the funds.  Spending most of your discretionary income on paying off huge deficits does not indicate good planning.  And to invest you have to get the economy moving, so the investment funds, tax revenues, come in without overburdening the taxpayer.

And to have good investments you have to get rid of bad investments, like a vast over-expenditure in "education," where no education results.

I don't envy the president's position, and I do not claim that he, or his party, are the only ones responsible for our current mess.  The mind-dulling leadership of some American corporations, and corporate sectors, have played their role.  General Motors anybody? 

But Obama is the national leader, and all he has done is piled on more government spending, with little result to show for it.  We need a more creative leadership in both parties, less beholden to interest groups.  The president can make all the reasonable points about the future that we wishes.  Without the cash, there is no future.

April 15, 2011     Permalink